AHEAD of the expected release of the inflation rate for May 2015 on June 18, by the Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, analysts from the FSDH Merchant Bank Limited have projected an inflation rate of 8.9%, as against 8.7 per cent in the preceding month of April.
Inflation rate has consistently risen in the last five months with March figure of 8.5 per cent, while the April rate was the highest so far this year.
The analysts based their projections on the movement in the food prices at the international level, as measured by the Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, Food Price Index, FPI for the month of May 2015, which shows that the Index averaged 166.8 points, 1.4% lower than the revised value in April 2015, and 20.7% lower than the May 2014 figure.
“Our analysis of the foreign exchange rate of the local currency indicated that the value of the Naira appreciated against the US Dollar marginally by 0.05% from US$/N199.23 at the end of April to US$/N199.14 at the end of May. The appreciation recorded in the local currency between the two months further reduced the prices of imported goods in the domestic market,” FSDH said.
“Furthermore, an analysis of the average prices of a basket of consumer goods selected from across the country monitored by FSDH Research in May 2015 shows that there was a general increase in the prices of essential food items during the period. Food items such as tomatoes, onions, yam, Irish potatoes, fish and beans recorded increases of 60.99%, 27.14%, 22.22%, 15.56%, 6.69% and 3.57% respectively. However, the price of sweet potatoes and garri recorded decreases of 5.95% and 5.56% respectively. Meanwhile, the price of vegetable oil, rice, meat and palm oil remained unchanged. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in 1.06% increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 175.78 points. We also noticed an increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity Gas and other Fuel between April and May 2015.”

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