There is disquiet in the once-peaceful house of the All Progressives Congress (APC). To put it more lightly, all does not appear to be well. After the March 28 presidential election, most people(including this writer) only imagined “doom” for the party’s bitter rival, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) after it lost the presidential election. The APC strategists must have thought that with the presidency in the bag, all will be well after all. But this was never to be. Can it be the case that the tables are turning fast?
This writer has written severally on the need for the party to review its post Presidential election strategies and attitudes. Like I have always maintained, it appears the party overestimated its position against the PDP. Another possibility is that some APC “optimists” might have felt the PDP would have given up just because they have lost the presidential election. But if recent events are anything to go by, it appears to me that the tables are turning and fast against the APC except things are done now and fast.
Even the most optimistic party supporter will deny the existence of “irreconcilable” differences within the APC today. There were early warnings which the party strategists for reasons best known to them simply chose to ignore. The only logical explanation one could find for this is that beyond winning the 2015 presidential elections (defeating the PDP), these factions or “trends” within the party had no other ambition hence, this post-presidential election crisis.
Bad enough it is that more than a month after President Muhammadu Buhari was sworn-in, Nigerians are still left in the realms of speculations about the administration’s cabinet selections, ideological colouration and policy direction. To me, this only confirms that we are to agree with those who observed that the party is not really prepared for the Presidency. If we take the face value of this position from the standpoint of recent events in the National Assembly crises and the fact that APC government is yet to properly form about a month into its swearing-in, then we may not be too far from correct. In parenthesis, it was reported in a/some national newspaper(s) in the heat of the presidential campaigns that the party had in fact given up winning the election and has decided to mortgage the presidency for winning the gubernatorial elections in some states.
Like I wrote earlier, the warnings of the escalation of crises within the party have gone largely unheeded. They only expressed in the recent National Assembly crises. This does not mean the PDP doesn’t have its own set(s) of internal contradictions; the only difference is that the latter was able to properly diagnose its problems and root them out ruthlessly while the latter pretended all was well. Can you now see how the tables turn?
Immediately after the presidential election, there was loud noise with the former ruling party over its loss of power. Suddenly “factions” arose as to who was to blame for the party’s loss. The situation calmed down with the “removal” or “resignation” of the party’s erstwhile National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Mua’azu. At least for now, there appears to be a boost of morale for the PDP following its in-road in the National Assembly with which it could use as a protective shield for itself at least for the next four years. All these the PDP did while our APC strategists were on holidays enjoying their honeymoon.
One should be surprised the APC strategists could not see or pre-empt the present crises with a view to preventing this mess. One would equally have doubted the party’s foresight for thinking the well-known PDP would just give up a fight after losing in the first round. If the party did not see the fact that the PDP infiltrated its ranks before the elections, then one is left to wonder if they (APC) did any proper diagnosis of the PDP at all. If the APC missed out on all these, then my unsolicited advice is that the party leaders should by now be in the market shopping for strategists.
Some things can be very painful. It can be more painful when you are bitten in your own devices, your own game. Just about four years, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) one of the merging parties in the present APC, openly celebrated the victory of Aminu Tambuwal as Speaker of the House of Representatives which the PDP had to live with for four years. For those who know, the APC’s position was strengthened by the PDP’s loss of that position. The APC has every right to kick; to weep; to make loud noise or to scream because the tables are turning and fast.
So, whoever must turn the table must always be in the position of strength. If the APC must take any advice I gave or have given, it must be this one.
Adigun is a political risk analyst and an independent political strategist